bank rates

When Will 6-Month CD Rates Rebound?

Chart showing something rising.A new analysis of data from the last time CD rates declined significantly shows short-term interest rates are likely to rebound only after long-term rates increase.

Don’t we know it.

The best short-term CD rates have remained stubbornly unchanged for months, even as long-term offers on our CD Rates Leaderboard have shown some life.

This is as true with 6-month CDs as with any other term.

Doral Bank Direct‘s lead rate of 0.88% APY represents a 5% decline from the best deal available this time last year. Only 3-month CDs have fared worse.

The online bank of Doral Bank, which is the leading community bank in Puerto Rico that also has five branches in northwest Florida and two in New York City, Doral Bank Direct (www.doralbankdirect.com) requires a $500 minimum deposit.

EH National Bank (www.ehnbank.com), which has a single branch in Beverly Hills, Calif., offers the second-best rate of 0.85% APY and requires a $10,000 minimum deposit.

Colorado Federal Savings Bank (www.coloradofederalbank.com), which is an online bank based in Greenwood Village, Colo., pays 0.70% APPY requires a $5,000 minimum deposit.
 
Large banks and thrifts continue to pay an annual average yield of 0.15% for 6-month CDs.

Chart showing the best 6-month CD rates versus average CD rates.

So when might we see improvement?

Market Rates Insight, a California-based pricing consultant to financial institutions, says the next year could mirror the “rate-increase sequence” of 2003-04.

First to increase were 3-, 4- and 5-year CDs, Market Rates Insight found. Six months later, 1- and 2-year CD rates began to gradually increase followed four months later by short-term CDs.

If July marked the start of an increase in long-term CD rates (the best 5-month CDs jumped by more than a quarter of a percentage point), this analysis suggests 6-month CDs will begin their slow climb next spring or summer.

We’ll be waiting.

Banks qualify for our rankings by imposing no restrictions on who can buy their certificates of deposit, either online or through the mail.

Compare these returns with the best CD rates from scores of banks in our extensive database.

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